Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.122675 0.144111 0.167768 0.195753 0.227894 0.263590 0.306171
2025-11-16 0.084384 0.112290 0.146594 0.191579 0.248700 0.318463 0.409727
2025-11-23 0.062368 0.091282 0.129839 0.184412 0.258952 0.356379 0.492366
2025-11-30 0.053676 0.084794 0.129062 0.195583 0.291707 0.424012 0.617919
2025-12-07 0.042945 0.072886 0.118124 0.189948 0.299191 0.456708 0.697829
2025-12-14 0.034748 0.063043 0.108235 0.183682 0.303869 0.484518 0.771911
2025-12-21 0.028763 0.055542 0.100576 0.179308 0.310117 0.514234 0.850351
2025-12-28 0.025274 0.051624 0.098028 0.182542 0.328242 0.563138 0.961655
2026-01-04 0.022882 0.049226 0.097624 0.189113 0.352189 0.622905 1.094576
2026-01-11 0.020507 0.046411 0.095997 0.193153 0.371945 0.677122 1.222368
2026-01-18 0.018214 0.043330 0.093382 0.194927 0.387637 0.725456 1.343668
2026-01-25 0.015897 0.039766 0.089281 0.193271 0.396699 0.762741 1.448438
2026-02-01 0.013670 0.036037 0.084418 0.189714 0.402194 0.794827 1.547956
2026-02-08 0.011795 0.032765 0.080037 0.186586 0.408210 0.828429 1.653097
2026-02-15 0.009924 0.029106 0.074232 0.179658 0.405810 0.845935 1.729744
2026-02-22 0.009518 0.029080 0.076589 0.190575 0.440710 0.936908 1.950187
2026-03-01 0.008141 0.026194 0.071840 0.185071 0.440690 0.959934 2.042502
2026-03-08 0.006932 0.023501 0.067114 0.178951 0.438588 0.978424 2.126992
2026-03-15 0.005987 0.021352 0.063394 0.174679 0.439997 1.003930 2.226909
2026-03-22 0.005490 0.020452 0.062770 0.177838 0.458402 1.065874 2.404501
2026-03-29 0.005173 0.020052 0.063421 0.184256 0.484890 1.146704 2.626058
2026-04-05 0.004788 0.019347 0.063126 0.188202 0.505902 1.217231 2.830565
2026-04-12 0.004366 0.018415 0.062042 0.189935 0.521730 1.277525 3.017177